After 10 years outdoors, shingles rated for 190 mph winds had failure odds of 0.8% to 99.8% at 90 mph in IBHS tests

Asphalt shingles that spent 10 years outdoors at a South Carolina test site differed widely in how well they held down in wind, the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) reported on September 22, 2026. IBHS is a research group whose members include insurance companies. All nine products it modeled carry the top class under both ASTM wind test standards, and one of those classes means a shingle is expected to perform at 190 mph.

After a decade, IBHS put the chance of a shingle failure at a 90 mph gust between 0.8% and 99.8%, depending on the product. The Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association (ARMA), the shingle makers’ trade group, published a review in October that disputes the study’s methods.

1IBHS modeled the odds that at least one of 60 shingles fails

IBHS began building roof sections on what it calls aging farms in 2013, at its research center in Richburg, South Carolina. Member companies later hosted smaller farms in Madison, Wisconsin, and Amelia, Ohio. Every roof faces north and south. Fourteen products from seven manufacturers were tested, and the report labels each one with a letter.

Sections came off the roofs in 2024 and 2025. In the lab, IBHS measured how much of each panel had come unsealed and the force needed to break the sealant bond, the strip of adhesive near a shingle’s lower edge that glues it to the shingle below. It set those results against wind loads measured on a full-size test house in its wind chamber. The result is the chance that at least one of 60 shingle positions fails at a given 3-second gust. The report notes that a typical roof can have about a thousand shingles, which would raise the odds.

The wind ratings on a shingle wrapper come from these two tests.

2Product B, nearly half unsealed, had the highest odds at 99.8%

IBHS calls unsealing the weakest link. Product B, an architectural shingle, had nearly half of its north- and south-facing shingles unsealed after 10 years and the highest failure odds, 99.8%. The two 3-tab products, the flat single-layer shingles with three tabs along the edge, came in at 78.8% and 98.8%, and IBHS says 3-tab shingles are more prone to unsealing than architectural ones. Product F, with very little unsealing, a moderate average bond strength and a narrow spread, stayed at 0.8% at every wind speed.

Product A had relatively high bond strength after 10 years, but its results were spread widely and some of its shingles had unsealed. IBHS put its failure odds at 30.6% and says products like it are open to failures that start at their weakest shingles, because one failed shingle can set off failures across the roof.

The odds barely moved with wind speed. Product H went from 59.0% at 90 mph to 60.1% at 190 mph.

IBHS measured the spread within each product with the coefficient of variation, the standard deviation as a share of the average. It averaged 0.24 for new shingles, 0.33 at 5 years and 0.29 at 10. Most products gained bond strength in their first 5 years and began to decline after that, the report says. Of the nine 10-year products from Richburg, only A, G and I did not lose strength from 5 to 10 years.

3Conshohocken sits about 5.4 degrees north of the Richburg farm

4The airport’s strongest gust since 1996 was 74.9 mph, in 2010

The strongest 5-second gust at Philadelphia International Airport from 1996 through October 28, 2026 was 74.9 mph, on June 24, 2010. The airport recorded 112 days with a gust of 50 mph or more from 1996 through 2025, 12 of them in 2025.

IBHS’s model starts at 90 mph, above any gust in that record, so its table gives no odds for the gusts this area sees most. The report’s summary says shingle failures have been observed in storms at wind speeds well below design levels. The weather guide covers wind and hail here.

5ARMA says the study covered 14 products in a market of about 50 product lines

6Both groups tell owners to know which shingle is on the roof

1. Keep the record

   Both groups tell owners to know what is on the roof. IBHS says knowing the installed product matters for judging risk, and ARMA tells homeowners to keep records of the specific shingle and its product class. Ask that the contract name the manufacturer, the product line and the color, and keep the invoice and a wrapper. The contract guide lists what Pennsylvania requires a home improvement contract to include.

2. Ask about fastening

   The wind class on the wrapper does not separate the products IBHS modeled. ARMA tells contractors to follow the manufacturer’s installation instructions, including the enhanced fastening some manufacturers specify at eaves and rakes. Eaves are the roof’s lower edges and rakes its sloped edges at the gable ends. Ask whether the quote follows those instructions.

3. Ask the insurer which rule applies

   If an insurer raises the roof’s age at renewal or in a claim, ask the insurer which rule in your policy it is applying. The Pennsylvania Insurance Department’s Consumer Help Center takes questions, and the insurance claims guide covers the claim process.